The rise and decline of Java/C++ programmers
This are US figures, yeah, but more or less the same is happening this side of the pond. Computer Weekly was down to two pages of non-public sector jobs last week. The number of my ex-colleagues out of work is truly frightening.
At least my project is making money. There is some reassurance in that.
But will the market pick up again? I think so, but not just yet, and not to the level that it reached during the golden years of the late nineties. CEOs are looking for dead-cert projects these days.
Posted to Software development by Simon Brunning at September 04, 2002 02:05 PMHello, Simon,
It felt really good to discover, on-line, almost all of the Brunnigs I know (except Daniel) by accidentally stumbling upon your blog. Not to mention the blog itself - I find it very interesting and will get back to it as soon as I can.
I'm glad to hear your job is secure.
The comparison of the USA demand curve with the NASDAQ index is thought-provoking. How this manages to affect the job market in Denmark so much is puzzling, though.
Not very long ago - as late as spring 2001? - Danish newspapers quoted top industry people talking about a shortage of software people in the range of many thousands. As far as I recall, the figure was about 110,000, which would amount to quite a lot in a marketplace of perhaps 2 million jobs total. Probably, they were talking about the demand for several years to come.
Then, layouts in the range of hundreds managed to saturate the market until this day. Strange indeed.
Anyway, I'm afraid one of the reasons why I, for one, am finding it difficult to get at a free-lance job in Denmark may be the decline of C++ as far as new projects are concerned. I.e. from where I stand, C++ seems to be slowly turning into legacy. C++ being what I'm best at, I actually do understand (while regretting).
A year and a half ago, I witnessed a bank decide on using Java instead. Now, banks are _bound_ to be on the conservative side, so when a bank opts like this, it's easy for me to imagine that a lot of companies that can afford to be more dynamic may have taken a similar decision even earlier.
To counter the consequences, I've just dug my way through a C#/.NET book (I actually hit your page while trying to find a C# vs. Java comparison). I expect to find the Visual Studio/.NET trial in my mailbox any day now.
I?m sure this is not enough, though - I feel the Danish C# market rise, but not very fast. So I've taken to studying XML in the context of Java. I enjoy the enlightenment, but I'm afraid I may be a bit late. I'll appreciate very much if you share your thoughts.
I see you are very fond of Python. It's been on my wish list for quite some time now, so I'm looking forward to checking out your links. How did you get on track with it and what do you use it for?
BTW, as Halina and Robert may have told you, I'm doing some work with Kristof developing small web sites. So far, there hasn't been any money in it, but it's a great pleasure working with him and it's very illuminative.
I must dash now, but I'll stay in touch.
Please say hello to all the other Brunnings from me.
Take care
Henryk
Hi Henryk,
Nice to hear from you.
I'm not sure that the NASDAQ/job market link is the whole story. It's certainly is a part of it, though - in two directions. What I think happened is that the dot-coms were massively over hyped, and there was a classic market bubble. When this bubble burst, not only did a lot of people lose their jobs directly, but the NASDAQ collapsed, which caused a general economic slowdown, and a lot more people lost their jobs.
But I think that there is another factor - Y2K. In the nineties, CEOs seemed to believe that constant investment in IT, and system improvement, was essential for competitiveness. The in 1998/1999, everyone spent all their time patching their existing systems. I think that CEOs realised at this point that they do not always have to run just to keep still. From now on, the costs and benefits of new systems will be investigated more thoroughly than used to be the case.
So, while I think that there will be an upturn, it won't be to the level of the late nineties. Ah well...
I think that you are right about C++. Aside from its huge complexity, I think that the days of managing your own memory are in the past. It's just too error prone.
So, the future is with Java, C# and the like. And since I try to avoid anything too proprietary, particularly where Microsoft is the proprietor ;-) , Java what I am into.
But I'd use Python if I could! Java is my wife, Python is my mistress. Python is superb, and I use it wherever I can. You can do just about anything with it (aside from low level stuff like writing device drivers). The only thing that it really lacks is a way of running securely in a client-side browser.
I'd recommend Dive into Python (http://diveintopython.org/) as a tutorial.
Do stay in touch - I'll say Hi to the folks for you.
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